The Dave Jordan Central Park Classic, now in its tenth year, was a mainstay of the pre-pandemic New York City race calendar. In fact, for most of its existence, it has been in the biggest race on the Central Park calendar. This proved true last year, when the DJCPC essentially matched pre-COVID registration during a COVID shortened race season. But with registration closing for this year’s event in less than 24 hours, the numbers are looking very different from both 2021 and all prior editions of the event.

Stepping back: a few weeks ago, we renewed our State of the Sport Series with a look at Bear Mountain Classic registration. Our goal was to assess whether the widely reported post-COVID bike boom is translating to increased participation in traditional USAC-governed road racing in the NYC area. The full analysis has all of the details, but the TL:DR version is that was hard to read too much into current road racing trends based solely on Bear Mountain registration. The advance weather forecast for the 2022 edition was miserable (and sadly accurate). This likely muted Bear Mountain registration in a real but difficult to quantify way. Even recognizing that headwind, there wasn’t much in the underlying numbers to suggest that road racing is seeing a post-pandemic boom.

At the time of that Bear Mountain analysis we noted that NYC circuit races might provide more optimistic signs for growth in road racing given they generally feature fewer logistical barriers to participation and take place on arguably more beginner friendly courses. Which brings us to this weekend’s Dave Jordan Central Park Classic where the registration numbers unfortunately appear weaker than what we observed for Bear Mountain. Whereas the smallest pre-pandemic edition of the Dave Jordan Central Park Classic featured 376 riders, this year’s registration (which is still open for a few more hours!) totals a paltry 195 racers. This is down by half compared to last year’s DJCPC race despite a weather forecast of clear skies and sunshine. Put simply, the long-term chart of DJCPC registration is not pretty:

As always, registration will improve in the final 24 hours (though this does not make race budgeting any easier). And there is some noise in the underlying numbers - specifically field changes for the 2022 edition that may be impairing total turnout. But even when broken out by field (see below) the registration decline is apparent across every single field. Focusing specifically on the higher category Elite fields, each of which have $2,000 prize pools: the Elite Men’s field that sold out in two of the past three editions is just 61% full, while turnout for the Elite Women’s field has been cut in half from 2019 and 2021 registrations. The Armed Forces Cycling Classic schedule conflict may be driving some of these Elite category declines, but these are significant reductions in turnout all the same, especially for fields with large prize pools.

However, the most dramatic changes are coming in the mid-to-lower Men’s categories where very large M3 and M4 fields, both of which generally sold out pre-pandemic, have been replaced by a combined M3/4 field and what was a M4/5 field last year has been eliminated altogether. These changes ultimately make way for a new Master’s field for the 2022 edition of the event. Post-pandemic participation trends for Masters racers may be playing a role here, but the end result - the M3/4 field is just 72% full and there are a paltry 28 registrants for the Master’s field - is that the Dave Jordan Central Park Classic has swapped a reliable turnout of 170-200 riders across the M3/4/5 range for just 100 registrants for this new field structure.

Importantly, this is not just driving a reduction in total registrants. It arguably creates some risks around future race participation as turnout for the lower category Men’s fields has plummeted. Using Road Results category information below, registration from M4 riders is down versus all prior years and, as noted, the M5/Novice field has been eliminated entirely. M3 turnout is up slightly versus 2021, but still down dramatically from pre-pandemic levels. We have written about the incredibly abbreviated lifecycle of NYC racers in the past - the jist of which is that the average new NYC bike racer is only active for ~1.5 seasons. As a result, bringing lower category racers into the Club is vitally important to sustaining current membership levels and with it, a viable Central Park race calendar. It is far too early to know how lower M4 and M5/Novice turnout for a CRCA Open Race like the Dave Jordan Central Park Classic will impact future Club membership, but looking at the chart below it seems difficult to believe that these trends bode well:

Unfortunately, much of the same directional commentary applies to the Dave Jordan Central Park Classic Women’s fields as well. Last year’s race made the wise decision to reintroduce a Women’s Development field to the race schedule. This contributed to dramatic and encouraging growth in total Women’s field turnout, which more than doubled from the 2019 edition of the race to near record levels. Unfortunately, even with the same Elite Women’s + Women’s Development structure in place for this year’s edition of the race, registration is down by more than half for these fields. Women’s fields usually show some of the strongest last minute registration trends, but with less than 24 hours to go before registration closes, these numbers are unfortunately not encouraging - especially for the Women’s Development field that has shrunk from 39 racers last year to just 15 for the 2022 edition:

Where does this leave us on the notion of a post-pandemic bike racing boom? As was the case with the Bear Mountain Classic, there is noise in these numbers that limits our confidence in any major conclusions. For Bear Mountain the weather forecast was a headwind, whereas the challenge for the Dave Jordan Central Park Classic is at least partly driven by a shift towards Master’s racing that is not paying dividends on turnout. Schedule conflicts might be an ancillary factors, as could be ongoing construction on the Central Park course that narrows the racing lane on one of the fastest parts of the Park. But the numbers are ultimately what they are - absent miraculous final day registrations the 2022 edition of the Dave Jordan Central Park Classic looks set to be the smallest on record, which does not suggest there is a significant bike boom as it pertains to traditional USAC road racing in NYC.

On that sobering note, over the next few weeks we’re going to take a look at registration trends for some of the other local race series in NYC and conduct a deeper dive on Bear Mountain registration trends by category - hopefully we’ll find some signs for increased optimism on the State of the Sport as part of this analysis. The good news is that there is still a lot of great racing to be had in New York City including the recently reborn Floyd Bennett Field weeknight races. With a lot of very smart and dedicated folks working behind the scenes to host the events and grow the sport, we’re hopeful those efforts start to drive improved turnout. Stay tuned.

Registration for the 2022 edition of the Dave Jordan Central Park Classic is available here. It looks set to be a beautiful day of racing on one of the best and most unique courses in the country (Central Park!) so we encourage you to consider joining in the fun.

Update: Final Registration Data

Updated June 2, 8PM: with registration for Dave Jordan Central Park Classic now officially closed, updated charts including the final turnout numbers are included below. There was also a vibrant conversation about the preliminary numbers on Reddit, with a number of salient points raised by r/velo members.