State of the Sport: Five Years of NYC Race Statistics and Analysis
We originally wrote this analysis in January as we were preparing for the start of the 2020 road racing season in New York City. The goal was to better understand the multi-year trends for bike racing in the Big Apple and to assess whether the sport was proving as durable as it seemed compared to the national level challenges we have written about in the State of the Sport.
In the months since this was originally written the world has changed dramatically. COVID-19 has not just put bike racing on hold, it has temporarily eliminated the regular social element of our sport and exacted a painful toll on the city that we know and love. Looking to the future we’re honestly not sure what New York City bike racing will look like. Racing may at some point resume before a vaccine exists, but as we have written about in our Race Director Diaries, so many events, and in some ways the community as a whole, were already holding on by a thread. If some significant part of the racing community vanishes from the scene for health or economic reasons (including relocating out of the City), can the NYC race calendar as a whole survive?
That is certainly something that we’re thinking about and may assess in future Journal entries, but in the meantime we thought it was time that we finally publish this original analysis - featuring both the good and the bad from the past five years of bike racing in New York City. At the very least we are hoping at this stage it will provide a change of pace from the constant news cycle and a throwback to a time when our biggest concerns could be whether our favorite local races would make a permanent foothold on the race calendar or vanish into a distant memory.
A note on the underlying data: this analysis includes registrations for six races: the Grant’s Tomb Criterium, the Orchard Beach Criterium, the Bear Mountain Classic, the Dave Jordan Central Park Classic, the Lou Maltese Memorial, and the Mengoni Grand Prix. While field structures have evolved for these events over time, from a high level the structure and timing within the season has not, so they serve as relatively good indicators for the state of the sport. The short-lived Fort Lee Criterium, which was cancelled after the 2018 edition due to challenged economics, is excluded for all time periods. Unless otherwise specified, all registrations are included in this analysis whether they are paid or free (juniors and kids fields are free at CRCA Open Races). And lastly, for full disclosure: I helped run these races in various roles over the time period discussed below.
Bike Racing in New York City: the headline numbers
Our State of the Sport Series is filled with analysis looking at the challenges of categorized bike racing in the present age, specifically the significant shrinkage of the sport over the past decade since the boom ‘Lance years.’ We are as concerned as anyone about the future of categorized bike racing. But here’s the thing: the New York City categorized racing data provides signs for hope - taken cumulatively, the races included in this data set grew registration in both 2018 and 2019.
Since 2015, turnout for the six races in question has ranged from 2,500 participants to more than 3,000 in 2019. Significantly, the 2018 data does not include the Lou Maltese Memorial for that year as it was held as a members-only club event.
The orange bar in 2018 adjusts for the fact that the CRCA Lou Maltese Memorial was held as a members-only event in 2018 by assuming the average registration for the event in 2016, 2017, and 2019. This adjusted figure points to cumulative 2018 registrants of 2,900.
This growth, while modest in absolute terms given that 2019 adjusted registrations only increased by ~100 registrants, is fairly remarkable against the aforementioned backdrop of a sport that has been shrinking significantly since 2012:
So, what is driving this growth in New York City bike race participation and what conclusions, if any, can we draw about the direction of the sport? Let’s dive into the good news, and a bit of bad news, of the underlying the annual registration data.
All photographs by Scott Rettino at the 2019 Grant’s Tomb Criterium.
What Is ‘Working’ For NYC Bike Racing
Criterium Racing at Grant’s Tomb
The most significant positive driver underlying this data set is without a doubt the Grant’s Tomb Criterium. It’s a special event that we love dearly. Traditionally held in early March, it has lots going for it: an element of effectively being a season opener for many local racers, the uniqueness of being one of just two USAC races held on New York City streets, and a fun spectator friendly atmosphere (cold weather notwithstanding). With those tailwinds, the event has grown remarkably from just over 450 registrants in 2015 to more than 825 in 2019. While not the only source of growth for this data set, it is by far the largest:
The Grant’s Tomb Criterium has grown remarkably since 2015, reaching nearly 850 registrants for the 2019 edition of the race despite early season temperatures that can sometimes veer toward the uncomfortable.
This significant growth in turnout has allowed CRCA to both invest in the event - adding rider amenities and increasing early registration discounts - while still generating attractive returns on the event that help fund the Club’s development and membership oriented priorities. While luck with weather is essential to generating the registration growth observed above, the past five years have created a nice flywheel effect with improved registration generating more revenue, which in turn allows the investment required to sustain and ideally continue growing the event. In short, it has been a home run.
Circuit racing in Central Park
The other significant source of growth over the past five years has been from the three circuit races held mid-summer in Central Park, the Dave Jordan Central Park Classic, the Lou Maltese Memorial, and the Mengoni Grand Prix. These races have always enjoyed reliably solid turnout. Setting aside the brutal 5:30AM start time, they are relatively easy for New York City residents to access, they are some of the longest standing / most recognizable races in the area, and they’re effectively the only option for non-CRCA members to race in Central Park. And while the field structures / race schedule cap the maximum participation well below the levels of Grant’s Tomb on a per race basis, this was another area where 2019 registration was at record levels despite the broader challenges for USAC categorized racing.
The Dave Jordan Central Park Classic, the Lou Maltese Memorial, and the Mengoni Grand Prix all take place in Central Park and despite the very early 5:30 AM start times the three events have seen solid growth in total registration since 2015.
Given the relatively modest cost structure associated with the Central Park races, these events are also some of the most financially sustainable on the Club’s calendar. Thus the strength of registration over recent years allows the Club to continue investing in growth, while also allocating significant proceeds from the Dave Jordan Central Park Classic to the Club’s Century Road Club Development Foundation.
What Isn’t Working As Well: Road Racing at Bear Mountain
For the races included in this data set, the Bear Mountain Classic Road Race is the toughest nut to crack. It’s an awesome race that we as a team look forward to every single year, but as we wrote about in our ‘Trying to Balance the Books’ post it is also an extremely expensive race to run. Ultimately the race has been financially sustainable for CRCA, but with registration trends that look like this, sponsorship has become an integral part of the event’s budget:
Registration for the Bear Mountain Classic Road Race has declined by approximately 25% since 2015, making it the only race on the CRCA calendar that has experienced this sort of consistent declining registration.
So why has registration for the Bear Mountain Classic trended downward since 2015? There have been some field structure realignments, but not of the sort that should generate structurally smaller turnout. Prize money has certainly declined given more challenging race financials, but that has been the case throughout the CRCA calendar where non-elite prize pools have been eliminated and elite prize pools have been significantly reduced.
Part of us fears that the at times grueling nature of the event - the drive up to Harriman State Park, the relatively expensive registration (compared to the rest of the CRCA race calendar), the multiple lap format of the course, and the relatively high percentage of riders that get dropped from the main group all contributes to a sub-optimal experience compared to other events on the calendar (categorized and non-categorized alike). But, that isn’t the sort of thing that can be proven/disproven based on the data we have access to today, so we’ll leave that to a separate, more opinion oriented piece in the future.
All photographs by Scott Rettino at the 2019 Grant’s Tomb Criterium.
An Important Key to Success: Keeping Costs Low
We think an important component of these overall registration trends is the fact that the average cost of the series has actually come down slightly compared to 2016, despite significant inflation in insurance costs and other investments in these races like hiring professional photographers. Certainly the races in question benefit from a broadly healthy New York City racing community and increased sponsorship support over the past several years, but we think its important to recognize the role of keeping registration cost inflation to a minimum in supporting the registration numbers described above.
It is also important to recognize the use of early registration discounts for every race in this series - typically 30% or greater discounts for riders who register several weeks out. This seems like a reasonable trade-off: the race organizer gets significantly improved financial visibility (something that is often severely lacking in the sport) and racers save a few bucks on their registration. With roughly half of race registrants taking advantage of some form of early registration discount, it is an equation that has generally worked for growing registration while keeping costs modest (especially for those that register early).
Despite significant investments in the races in the Series and dramatic inflation in insurance costs, thanks to a combination of disciplined budgeting, increased registration, and more sponsor relationships the total cost of the Series has actually decreased compared to 2016.
Where We Can Do Better: Women’s Racing
Thus far we’d argue the data herein is more positive than negative - the majority of the CRCA race calendar has in fact grown over the past five years and every race in 2019 was solidly profitable for the Club. But, as observed with the declining registration for the Bear Mountain Classic Road Race, the numbers are not universally positive. In fact, one other area of weakness that we would flag is with Women’s Registration for the non-Central Park races.
For the Grant’s Tomb Criterium, despite significant growth in total registrations, some of which has come in the form of the free juniors fields, total registrants for the (senior) Women’s fields has actually declined from 2016 levels. In fact, in 2019 these fields represented less than 15% of total Grant’s Tomb Criterium registrations. Unfortunately the trend line for the Bear Mountain Classic is even worse, with 2019 featuring the smallest Women’s fields turnout in recent years:
To be explicitly clear, we would vehemently push back against anyone attempting to make an argument that Women’s fields should be reduced/restructured given these trends. Rather, we offer this observation in recognition that despite CRCA’s progressive stance on Women’s racing, which includes a significant investment in the Women’s Development Series and a focus on equality in field structures/prizes, the reality is that the NYC racing community is not making as much progress as we all want in growing Women’s racing. I wish I had an easy answer as to why, and a proposal to address it, but unfortunately I do not.
Perhaps there is some lag effect at play between providing more racing opportunities and attracting more new women into the sport, or we need to do a better job of convincing our neighboring race directors to also be more proactive with their women’s fields offerings so there exists a more holistic women’s race calendar and not just sporadic events per category over the course of a season. But I sincerely hope that the coming years will see these downward trends reverse and more women will enter the sport while retaining those just starting out.
Parting Thoughts on the state of NYC Bike Racing
We think these numbers are pretty positive, particularly in light of some of the extremely concerning numbers that USAC has reported in recent years including double digit percentage declines in the number of events for nearly half of the country’s Local Associations last year. These numbers also prove that at least in certain regions, road is not as dead as some of the online proclamations might suggest.
But the news from New York definitely isn’t all rosy. New York State was one of those Local Associations that experienced a double digit decline in events last year. The majority of the New York City calendar relies on just three venues (Central Park, Prospect Park, and Floyd Bennett Field). Losing any of those three venues, as looked likely to happen to FBF last year, would have a dramatic impact on the NYC race calendar.
Further, the volunteer led organization responsible for the Central Park portion of that calendar, CRCA, has experienced multiple years of declining membership. Certainly, the club has been swimming upstream when it comes to a shrinking sport, but given its reliance on a volunteer/membership structure, the continued decline in CRCA membership introduces some legitimate anxiety about the sustainability of the Club’s current structure, and with it the race calendar featured in this analysis.
Outside of those region specific considerations, what parting thoughts do we have from these figures?
Race density is important to sustaining a healthy racing community. We have often written about the beauty of the New York City race calendar. On a number of weeks during the summer it is possible to race five days in a week without ever stepping into a car: Saturday in Manhattan’s Central Park, Sunday in Brooklyn’s Prospect Park, Tuesday at Floyd Bennett Field, Wednesday on the track at the Kissena Velodrome in Queens, and Thursday just across the GWB in New Jersey. This ensures a plethora of events to choose from, as well as a mix of field structures across those events, both of which we see as key to sustaining the New York City race community (also to note: only 3 of the 5 of these options currently have a women’s field, to our earlier point of needing increased coordination among neighboring promoters). If Central Park racing went away tomorrow the overall race calendar would still be one of the best in the country, but we think the community would lose racers, which would certainly hurt the registration trends discussed above.
High quality and sustainable events are going to outperform the average. The first part of that statement is obvious, but we think the latter point is equally important. The events included in this data set have always operated with strict budgeting and the recognition that the organizer (CRCA) cannot take a loss on the races and have them survive. If that means cutting prize pools that means cutting prize pools. But within these constraints, these events have always focused on maximizing the rider experience - to be better than the average bike race in terms of marketing, race day experience and post-race communication. That hasn’t always been easy to achieve, but over time the combination of quality and sustainability has worked well for these races.
Budgeting and managing costs is key to sustaining and growing events. CRCA has never shied away from making investments where it is additive to the event (i.e. hiring professional photographers, providing free food/coffee for racers). But it has been extremely disciplined on when to make those investments - for instance only adding those amenities once registration has gotten to break-even profitability - and it has been extremely strict on ensuring that spending in done in a manner that generates a return for racers and for the event. This has allowed events like the Bear Mountain Classic, where registration has been lackluster, to survive some lean years.
In New York City, criteriums and circuit races are outperforming road racing. We’re hesitant to read too much into the data given the small sample size, but there does appear to be a divergence in trends between CRCA’s big criterium (Grant’s Tomb) and CRCA’s big road race (Bear Mountain) with the crit steadily gaining in popularity at the same time the road race has faded. Given the spectator and community friendly nature of an urban criterium like Grant’s Tomb, we’re not entirely surprised by these trends and we’d be curious to see how this compares to experiences in other regions.
